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    ASIA unversity > 資訊學院 > 資訊工程學系 > 博碩士論文 >  Item 310904400/12727


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://asiair.asia.edu.tw/ir/handle/310904400/12727


    Title: The Study on Power Loading Prediction Model to Forecast Electricity Demand for Community Electricity Contract Capacity by Utilizing Grey Theory
    Authors: Yang, Cheng-Hsun
    Contributors: Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering
    Hsing-Chung Chen
    Keywords: Power Demand;Rolling Forecast Method;Moving Average Method;Gray Prediction;Contract Capacity
    Date: 2012
    Issue Date: 2012-11-18 17:00:42 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: Asia University
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to study contract capacity of power demand by utilizing gray prediction theory. Historical data for yearly power demand for a high-voltage user in the Hsinchu area is collected and analyzed. Optimal annual contract capacities from 2005 to 2011 are derived. Furthermore, prediction, analysis and comparison of the derived data are carried out for four different methods, namely the rolling forecast method, moving average method, MegaStat method and gray prediction method. The results show that, under certain conditions with limited data, the power demand prediction utilizing gray prediction is most accurate, compared to the other three methods. To compare actual data and prediction results, average absolute deviation percentage is used as the prediction accuracy criterion. It is found that the gray prediction method performs well in Taiwan power demand prediction. Therefore, the contract capacity prediction for the year of 2012 utilizing gray prediction method can be used as a reference for future electricity budget planning.
    Appears in Collections:[資訊工程學系] 博碩士論文

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