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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://asiair.asia.edu.tw/ir/handle/310904400/17782


    Title: Is Taiwan’s Lowest-low Fertility Reversible Via Socio-economic Development?
    Authors: Chen), 陳肇男(Chao-Nan
    Contributors: 健康產業管理學系
    Keywords: "Lowest-low fertility, population projection, socio-economic development"
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2012-11-26 12:03:32 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: "In this study, we assume that socio-economic development is the
    underlying mechanism for population changes. In the past 50 years, Taiwan
    has experienced drastic socio-economic changes and rapid population
    change. Simultaneous equations are thus used to integrate the effect of
    Taiwan's socio-economic factors on the projection of its age-specific
    fertility rate (ASFR). The estimated ASFR is then used to make population
    projections for Taiwan in the period 2004-2033. The results of our low and
    medium projections are close to the official (CEPD) medium-high
    projection for the same time period. The results of the high projection for
    both studies are rather similar too. Specifically, if Taiwan's socio-economic
    development grows at a high variant, its fertility would rebound to
    replacement level by 2033. If it follows the medium variant, fertility would
    rise to 1.6 births per woman. But if Taiwan's future socio-economic
    development grows sluggishly as in the assumed low variant case, Taiwan's
    fertility would remain at a lowest-low level."
    Relation: 人口學刊/Journal of Population Studies
    Appears in Collections:[健康產業管理學系] 期刊論文

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