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    题名: The Linkage among Energy Consumption, International Trade and Economic Growth in Taiwan
    作者: Valery, Guillaume;Chang, Jui-Chuan Della
    贡献者: National Chiayi University, Department of Applied Economics Taiwan
    关键词: Granger causality, Energy Consumption, International Trade, Toda-Yamamoto.
    日期: 2012
    上传时间: 2013-08-07 09:31:01 (UTC+8)
    出版者: National Chiayi University, Department of Applied Economics Taiwan
    摘要: In the context of energy crisis around the world: growth of the world energy consumption, scarcity of the energy resources, and soar of the energy prices, the energy holds an important role for the industrialized countries and for the countries that are in the industrialization path. Furthermore the high prices of the energy affect the energy imported countries that rely on the energy for their industries production and economic development. Our paper try to establish the evidence of the energy’s role in the economic growth of Taiwan, and wants to propose some solutions in order to minimize the high impact of the energy prices rising on the island overall economic growth. This paper examines the Granger causality among Taiwan’s energy consumptions, international trade and economic growth variables, using total imports (IMPVOL), total export (EXPVOL), total energy consumption (TEC), industrial energy consumption (IEC), and economic growth (REALGDP), Industrial Index Production (IIP), with monthly data cover a period 1989-2011. The method implemented in this paper is the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology for causality developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). In general, the empirical results find a bi-directional Granger causality between the energy consumption variables and economic growth variables, and between the economic growth variables and international trade variables. Another interesting finding is that the total energy consumption influences the importations, which confirm the high dependence of Taiwan’s energy consumption through the importation of energy, which value is almost 100%. The energy is then a heart in the island’s overall economic growth and a good energy policy and management must be set up.
    關聯: 2012中部學術財金研討會 論文發表
    显示于类别:[財務金融學系] 會議論文

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